New bird flu: What the first 82 cases reveal

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  A breeder, whose business has been affected by the H7N9 bird flu virus, walks his ducks along a road in Changzhou county, Shandong province.REUTERS/Stringer

Although health officials still haven't confirmed the species of animal that is the source of the H7N9 bird flu outbreak in China, most people who fell ill had contact with birds or pigs, according to a new report.

The report, published online April 24 in the New England Journal of Medicine, describes an investigation of the 82 people who were infected with the virus from the beginning of the outbreak (in February and March) through April 17.

So far, health officials know of 108 people who've fallen ill with the new strain of bird flu, 22 of whom have died, according to the World Health Organization.

The new report says that of the 77 patients who could report whether they had been in contact with animals, 59 patients, or 77 percent, reported recent exposure to animals, the report said. Most (76 percent) had contact with chickens (including four who were poultry workers), while 20 percent reported exposure to ducks, and 7 percent to swine, the report said.

The researchers said they suspect the source of H7N9 infections to be poultry. This agrees with the result of a study published today, which points to poultry markets as the likely source of H7N9 bird flu infections.

Other findings from the investigation of the 82 cases include:

-- H7N9 has a high death rate: About 21 percent of patients who fell ill with the virus died. That's a higher death rate than that of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), which killed about 9.6 percent of those who contracted the virus between 2002 and 2003. However, the new bird flu is so far not as deadly as the H5N1 bird flu virus, which caused an outbreak in 2003 and 2004 and has a mortality rate of 60 percent.

-- It takes about four days to become very sick: The average time between onset of H7N9 flu symptoms and hospitalization was 4.5 days, the researchers said. That's longer than the time between the onset of symptoms and hospitalization for the H5N1 strain of bird flu, which is about seven days, according to earlier studies.

-- Most patients are male: Seventy-three percent of these cases in the study were male. Patients ranged in age from 2 to 89, but 46 percent of cases occurred in people ages 65 and older.

-- No confirmed human-to-human transmission: Nearly all of the 82 cases were not connected, and they occurred across six regions of China. In two cases, health officials could not rule out the possibility that sick individuals caught the virus from family members. However, there is no evidence of sustained human-to-human transmission.

More investigation is needed not only to identify patients who may be sick with the virus, but also to determine risk factors for becoming ill (some people may not get sick), the researchers said.

A ban on the sale of poultry in market stalls, disinfection of markets or market closures may need to be considered to prevent the spread of the virus from animals to people, the researchers said.

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CDC investigates first human cases of new bird flu strain

By Jonathan Serrie

Published April 04, 2013

FoxNews.com

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A new strain of bird flu has killed four people in China and sickened at least seven others, according to Chinese media reports. Chinese health officials blame a new strain of H7N9, an influenza virus detected in birds, but never before seen in humans.

Officials at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are monitoring the situation, but they say it's too early to recommend any precautions for the general public.

"While cases have been seen of human infections with this virus in China, we haven't seen any cases in the United States or indeed in any country outside China so far," said Dr. Joseph Bresee, chief of the Epidemiology and Prevention Branch of the CDC's Influenza Division.

Although this new strain of H7N9 can apparently spread from birds to humans, there are no confirmed cases of human to human transfer.

Nevertheless, flu viruses always pose a threat of mutating into something more contagious. So, as a routine precaution, steps are already underway toward developing a vaccine should it be needed.

"We started that process now, and we can stop it if it turns out this virus doesn't pose a threat worthy of vaccine production," Bresee said. "But it's good to get it started as early as you can because vaccines may take a long time to make."

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China announces 2 new bird flu cases and 1 death, as worry grows over pandemic risk

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  Technicians carry out a test for the H7N9 bird flu virus using test reagents at the Beijing Center for Diseases Control and Prevention in Beijing.REUTERS/Stringer

China has found two more cases of a new strain of bird flu and one of the victims has died, state media said on Wednesday, bringing the number of cases to nine.

The new death comes as scientists struggle to identify the source of the virus H7N9 infection.  Many who have examined the genetics of the virus believe it could actually be spread silently between birds, without them showing any signs of symptoms.  However, officials do not know for sure if those infected with H7N9 actually contracted the virus from birds or any other animals.

So far, the Agriculture Ministry said it had yet to find any animals infected with H7N9, but added it was possible it had been brought to China by migratory birds.  If the virus is spread from birds to humans, scientists and other officials are worried about the potential for a H7N9 pandemic, as birds are difficult to contain.

The Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) of the United Nations said, however, there are many precautions they can take to stop the spread of the virus from birds to humans, if it is determined that is the way H7N9 is spreading.

“Although birds are not easily contained, we are able to separate species of birds,” Juan Lubroth, doctor and chief veterinary officer of FAO, told FoxNews.com.  “If we see the carriers are ducks, we separate ducks from chickens.  I the carriers are wildlife, we are able to change our rearing practices with nets so they won’t enter certain facilities.  There are things you can do. I can’t say it’s easy or free, but it’s an investment to protect people’s lives and commerce.”

The FAO has many projects up and running in China that analyze human-animal interface, to pick up novel pathogens in that may affect human health.  Lubroth said H7N9 is particularly worrisome because scientists have never seen the virus behave this way in humans before.

“Characterized as low pathogenicity in poultry, so that makes detection a little harder for veterinary services,” Lubroth said.  “We do not have what we had with H5N1, where chickens were dying off.  You don’t have that red flag, such as a dramatic event, which would trigger an owner to call veterinary services to see what is happening.”

A 38-year old cook became ill early last month while working in the province of Jiangsu, where five of the other cases were found. He died in hospital in Hangzhou city on March 27, the Xinhua news agency reported. Samples tested positive for the new H7N9 strain on Wednesday.

The second patient, also in Hangzhou, is a 67-year old who is under treatment. Xinhua said no connection between the two cases had been discovered, and no one in close contact with either patient had developed any flu-like symptoms.

Of the seven other cases of the new strain, two have died, both in the business hub of Shanghai The other five are in a critical condition in hospital in Nanjing.

Shanghai, Nanjing and Hangzhou are all close to each other in eastern China.

The World Health Organization said on Monday that the first three cases had shown no evidence of human-to-human transmission, but that there were questions about the source of the infection and the mode of transmission.

One of the world's top flu experts, Ab Osterhaus, based at the Erasmus Medical Center in The Netherlands, is concerned about some of the sequence's genetic mutations.

"The virus has to a certain extent already adapted to mammalian species and to humans, so from that point of view it's worrisome," he told Reuters in a telephone interview. "Really we should keep a very close eye on this."

China has stepped up its alert level since the cases came to light and has said it is being transparent in dealing with the outbreak.

China has a checkered record when it comes to tackling bad news, which has been known to be covered up by officials fearing it may attract unwanted attention from superiors and damage promotion prospects.

In 2003, authorities initially tried to cover up an epidemic of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, which emerged in China and killed about a tenth of the 8,000 people it infected worldwide.

Reuters contributed to this report.

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SURVEILLANCE NATION?Traffic Cam Footage Could Be Used in Criminal Cases

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When 21-year old Nicole Westbrook was gunned down in Seattle last year in a drive-by homicide, an apartment building security camera captured a grainy image of the side of the suspect's car.

Police wanted to look at clearer video from a nearby red-light camera to try and see the license plate. But state law bars them from accessing the video, and the murder remains unsolved.

Police and prosecutors, though, are now backing a Washington state bill that would allow law enforcement to use footage from not only red-light cameras, but also cameras that catch speeders and others. The bill passed the state House last week, and is now in committee in the Senate. 

"It could mean the difference of not only solving the case, but also making sure we're getting some of the most dangerous criminals off our streets," said Seattle Police Department Deputy Chief Nick Metz.

Before accessing the video in criminal cases, police would have to have a signed search warrant.

Still, some are concerned the move to let law enforcement view this footage could be a slippery slope. The American Civil Liberties Union calls it mission creep.

"When red-light cameras were first put up, it was with a very clear understanding to the public that this would be for traffic enforcement," said Doug Honig, of the ACLU in Seattle. "There's a lot of concern that we not start building the infrastructure of a surveillance society."

Twenty-five states have red-light cameras. Many, including Washington state, specified in the law that the cameras be for traffic enforcement only.

In some other states, the cameras have been used to bust criminals. A cattle rustler was caught on tape driving through a red light with stolen steers in Florida. A picture of a car thief was snapped as he drove through an intersection in Colorado. And a fatal hit-and-run was captured on tape in Arizona, leading to the arrest of the driver. Prosecutors say the right to privacy is not being violated.

"Once you walk out your door and walk down that sidewalk, you lose the expectation of privacy," said King County Washington Prosecuting Attorney Dan Satterberg. "By definition, things you do in public are not private."

But Washingtonians have always been wary of big brother. Recently, there was an outcry over waterfront surveillance cameras, and the mayor just nixed the use of two drones given to the city by the federal government.

"I don't want to be under surveillance," said Sam Bellomio, of Stand Up America in Seattle. "Where does it end?"

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MODEL MYSTERY: Group Suggests Cases of Missing Women Connected

With fears of foul play growing in the cases of three Colorado women who had profiles on small-time modeling websites before they disappeared, an advocacy group for women is launching its own investigation to see if they are connected or possibly even part of a bigger, nationwide case. 

The National Women’s Coalition Against Violence and Exploitation has hired a private investigator who plans to look into the possibility of a connection between the disappearances of Raven Furlong, 17, and Kara Nichols, 19, who both had profiles on ModelMayhem.com, and Kelsie Schelling, who has a modeling profile on the site Explore Talent.

“We are considering the options of an independent investigation into not only the cases we are currently handling but other cases that appear to have common attributes that may or may not be linked to the model sites in question,” Shelley Shaffer, head of the coalition's Missing Persons Division, told FoxNews.com.

“We are in conversations with former security investigators among others to see how significant all of the cases are to each other and then we will provide our findings to the authorities. Although we know of many cases with similar connections we are not placing blame on any one site, but we are following the concerns of our clients.” 

The coalition and investigators working with it have been probing some 14 cases nationwide in which missing women all had profiles on sites like Model Mayhem.

“When you have so many cases with a common denominator, that’s a red flag,” coalition spokeswoman Michelle Bart said.

Internet Brands, which owns and operates ModelMayhem.com, defended the site's practices in a written statement to FoxNews.com.

"While our policy is to fully cooperate with authorities if approached for assistance in an investigation, Model Mayhem has not been contacted by police authorities regarding either of the three recent disappearances in Colorado," Internet Brands spokesman Joe Ewaskiw said in the statement.

"Model Mayhem strongly believes that safety should be top of mind when doing anything online. ... The site offers detailed safety advice to help members understand what to look for when they are contacted by others," he added.

Site members also are encouraged to alert moderators to suspicious activity.

"Moderators view and respond to each and every inquiry," Ewaskiw said.

But the families of the missing tell FoxNews.com that not enough is being done by Model Mayhem.

“Do they run this website with full disclosure of the risk?” said Julia Nichols, mother of Kara Nichols, who has been missing since Oct. 9. She disappeared after telling her friends she was going to Denver from her Colorado Springs home for a modeling job. “These girls are young and impressionable. If they were fully aware, do you think they would use this website? They should inform the users and have more of a screening process.”

Furlong, 17, has been missing from Aurora since Feb. 5. Police consider her a runaway, according to KRDO. Buckley told Fox 31 Furlong called her family last month, but her mother says the call wasn’t normal.

“She said she had to go because it’s not her phone and they need their phone back,” said Lin Furlong.

Schelling was last seen on Feb. 4. Her empty car was discovered in Pueblo.

Furlong’s aunt, Tobi Buckley, discovered her niece's Model Mayhem profile after she vanished and saw some disturbing correspondence. Buckley has launched a Facebook page to build awareness around the case.

“If they are such a legitimate site, why wouldn’t they do anything?” she said to FoxNews.com. “Bad people are using the site, and they are doing nothing to stop it.”

Police have not officially linked the website—which has an “F” rating with the Better Business Bureau-- to any of the disappearances, but they are aware of the possible dangers that can be associated with using a site such as this.

El Paso County Sheriff's Lt. Jeff Kramer told FoxNews.com the modeling aspect is part of the probe.

“From the onset of the case we were aware that (Nichols) was an aspiring model, and we had a concern about the subculture often associated with these sites,” Kramer said.

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